| 摘要: |
| 将似然率和贝叶斯定理引入证明领域，能够得出狭义证明力的似然率评价进路，继而获得其全新定义： 即一项具有辨识度的证据在诉讼双方当事人提出相互独立假设下的“发生优势”。新定义基于概率评价体系具象化了证明力的真实面孔，揭示了证明力的两个决定性因素，道出了证据的实质价值并在此基础上创设出一套具体评价狭义证明力的科学思维范式。数字化证明力的概率评价进路面临帕斯卡式概率体系的诸多潜在危险，培根式概率体系能够有效消解这些危险。证据分量将帕斯卡式概率体系与培根式概率体系有效地结合在一起，形成了更加契合于现代庭审事实认定之证明力概率综合评价体系。 |
| 关键词: 狭义证明力 证明力评价 发生优势 概率性演绎 证据分量 |
| DOI： |
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| Preponderance of Occurrence： The New Concept of Probative Force — The Probabilistic Approach to Cognize and Evaluate the Narrow Probative Force |
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Xiong Xiaobiao
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| Abstract: |
| Through introducing Bayes' Rule into the proof field, the likelihood ratio approach of evaluating the narrow probative force can be obtained. And then, we can acquire a new definition of the probative force. That is, the probative force refers to the occurrence preponderance of a piece of evidence under the both parties' independent assumptions on the trial. The new definition is based on the probabilistic evaluation system to visualize the real face of the probative force and reveal two decisive factors of probative force. It points out the substantial value of evidence and creates a set of scientific thinking paradigm to specifically evaluate the narrow probative force. The probabilistic evaluation approach of digital probative force faces many potential dangers of Pascal's probability system. Bacon's probability system can effectively eliminate these dangers. The weight of evidence effectively combines the Pascal's probability system with Bacon's probability system to form a probabilistic comprehensive system for the evaluation of the probative force. This comprehensive system is more consistent with the modern trials' fact finding. |
| Key words: Narrow Probative Force, Evaluation of Probative Force, Preponderance of Occurrence, Probabilistic Deduction, the Weight of Evidence |
