| 摘要: |
| 随着危险驾驶罪成为最高发的犯罪，许多观点主张在司法上限制本罪的适用，或者增加本罪的成立要素、提高定罪条件，甚至建议废止本罪。但是，尚没有充分的实证研究说明我国设立本罪并实施十多年来对交通安全产生的实效，因此无法推测上述改动的后果。对交通事故发生数、死亡人数、受伤人数和直接财产损失建立回归模型，结果显示，交通事故死亡人数和受伤人数在危险驾驶罪设立后出现显著的降低。在本罪实施过程中，上一年度检察机关对醉酒驾驶案件作出的审查起诉决定总数增加时，本年度的交通事故死亡人数倾向于减少，但不起诉率、定罪数和缓刑率与交通事故死伤人数没有明显关联。基于实证结果，不宜废止本罪，也不宜增加本罪的成立要素或硬性提高血液酒精含量标准，而应在扩大刑事追诉范围的基础上减轻追诉的法律后果。 |
| 关键词: 危险驾驶罪 醉酒驾驶 交通事故 不起诉 缓刑 |
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| The Effectiveness and Policy of the Dangerous Driving Offense — An Empirical Study |
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Li Senyu
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| Abstract: |
| With dangerous driving becoming the most prevalent criminal offense， various perspectives have called for limiting its application， raising the threshold for conviction， or even abolishing the offense. However， the impact of this offense on traffic safety since its introduction over a decade ago has not been thoroughly examined through empirical research， making it difficult to predict the consequences of such proposed changes. Regression models were established for the number of traffic accidents， fatalities， injuries， and direct property losses. The results indicate a significant reduction in traffic accident fatalities and injuries after the criminalization of dangerous driving. During the implementation of this legislation， when the prosecutorial decisions on drunk driving cases increased in the previous year， there was a tendency for a decrease in traffic accident fatalities in the current year. However， the non-prosecution rate， conviction and probation rate showed no apparent correlation with traffic accident fatalities and injuries. Based on these findings， the offense should neither be abolished nor should its constituent elements be tightened or blood alcohol thresholds raised. Instead， the scope of prosecution should be expanded while mitigating the punishment. |
| Key words: Dangerous Driving, Drunk Driving, Traffic Accidents, Non-Prosecution, Probation |
